Going into the year, bond traders were pricing in several rate cuts. Companies reacted by increasing their allocations to fixed-income instruments, while cutting their cash holdings, according to Clearwater Analytics, which tracks $1.6 trillion in holdings from roughly 800 companies, most of them US-based.
After peaking in June, duration started to decline as it became clear to treasurers that the war in Iran wouldn’t be ending soon, and that its inflationary effects would build over time.
Traders’ current outlook, which includes three further rate increases by the middle of next year, is making the case for treasurers to allocate more money to cash and cash-like instruments such as money market funds, and less to fixed-income securities.
